Home advantage in football
How much is home advantage worth in football?
We often hear about how hard it is to win on a wet Tuesday night at Stoke, or how the Kop at Anfield is worth an extra half a goal a game. But realistically, how much of an advantage is it playing at home and how can we benefit as punters?
Take a look below at the statistics for the main leagues across the world this season in terms of corners, shots and goals.
|Home Goals||Away Goals||Goal Diff||Home Shots on target||Away Shots on target||Shot Diff||Home Corners||Away Corners||Corner Diff|
|France Ligue 1||1.5||1.0||0.5||4.4||3.7||0.7||5.3||4.0||1.3|
|France Ligue 2||1.2||1.0||0.2|
So we can see from the table above that across all of Europe, home advantage is worth 0.34 goals, 0.9 shots on target and 1.0 corner. In Scottish League 1 and 2 and Football League 2 the home advantage is almost non existent despite the fact the on target and corner difference is the same.
The advantage is roughly 8%. With 2.62 goals on average per game, and a 0.34 goal home advantage, it comes out at 7.7%.
So a 50/50 favourite on neutral territory will become a 54/46 favourite.
Interestingly, home advantage seems to go up slightly the further teams travel. The biggest countries USA, Brazil and Russia all have over 0.5 goal home advantage, although this could be a coincidence as Belgium also has a high home advantage.
As the standard of football drops down the leagues, home advantage becomes less significant. Studies have shown familiarity, home crowds, travel and the influence of the home crowd on the referee can all affect the home away bias.
Below are the odds from Scottish League 1
We can see that the bookies have pretty much adapted and put this in to their models. East Fife and Queen's Park are on the same points but the prices are 2.5 for the home team and 3.0 for the away team despite both sides being very similar in quality.
We are only scratching the surface of home advantage, there are hundreds of studies and stats on the subject, but most importantly at Betwade we want to know if this knowledge can help our long term trading and ultimately profitability.
So next time someone in the pub asks you how much is home difference, you can confidently say a third of a goal, BUT it doesn't matter too much, the further you go down the leagues.....and it's actually negative in Scottish League 1!